[Cover Story] Where Have All the Termites Gone?

With more than 50 years of pest control industry experience, George Mountain has seen it all. But he’s never seen a termite season like 2005. The 79-year-old owner of Mooresville Pest Control, Mooresville, Ind., is accustomed to the phone ringing consistently at his office during termite "swarm" season, but last year the phones fell silent. "It was the worst termite season in all the years I’ve been involved in the industry," he recalls. "The swarm simply didn’t happen."

Charlie Frommer, president of Evins Exterminating, Roslyn, N.Y., feels George Mountain’s pain. His company annually awards a prize to the employee who correctly picks the day in the spring when the proverbial "fit hits the shan," he says with a laugh. "We had no winner this past year." In fact, the company generated only 10 percent of its previous year’s termite volume. "We increased our business in other niche areas, so we made up for the loss, but it took a lot of scratching," he says, an experience Frommer doesn’t want to repeat in 2006.

While Charlie Frommer and George Mountain are hopeful this termite season signals a turnaround in their termite business, Donnie Blake, president of Okolona Pest Control, Louisville, Ky., isn’t taking any chances. "We may have a strong termite season again in 2006, but we’re not banking on it. In 2004, we had an outstanding termite season, but in 2005 it was one of our worst in 10 years," he says. "They’re saying it’s weather dependent, but I don’t believe it. I think it’s a pattern we’re going to be in for a period of time."

Is Blake right? Is the pest control industry in the midst of a volatile termite cycle — up one year, down the next — with no relief in sight? Or is there something else at work? If you ask the experts — pest management professionals, university researchers, longtime industry observers — there certainly is no shortage of theories. Here are the most frequently cited reasons:

Theory #1
Technological  Advancements

There’s no question after a challenging period controlling termites in the late 1980s and early 1990s — due in large part to the removal of chlordane from the marketplace — manufacturers responded with a variety of new termite control products that have proven highly effective against termites, most notably non-repellent liquid termiticides and baits. Could these cutting-edge technologies be having a dramatic impact on termite populations, thereby reducing termite swarming activity? While industry studies tracking product usage indicate new technology may be a factor, not everyone is convinced.

Whereas not that long ago, repellent termiticides were the treatment of choice, that’s no longer the case today. Liquid non-repellents have taken market share, with baits and hybrid treatments (baits + liquids) maintaining a prominent market presence. Perhaps even more significant, PCOs’ overall satisfaction level with their arsenal of termite control products appears to be at an all-time high, according to research conducted by Gary Curl, president, Specialty Products Consultants, Mendham, N.J.

Curl’s data from a 2003 study of the U.S. structural pest control market indicates an "extraordinarily high level of satisfaction" with the performance of termite control products nationwide. The mean satisfaction rating in Curl’s study was 8.9 on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being "not at all satisfied" and 10 being "completely satisfied." Almost half (45.9 percent) of all respondents said they were "completely satisfied" with their product of choice, a remarkable turnaround given the state of the termite market in the early 1990s. "Termite management has been in chaos since the late 1980s, with the removal of chlordane," said Dr. Brian Forschler, research scientist, University of Georgia. "Since then, the industry’s been swinging in five different directions. Now control products are looking better, and people are optimistic."

New technologies also have resulted in a marked reduction in callbacks, enhancing a PCO’s bottom line. When asked in a PCT survey what percentage of treated structures they performed "a single callback" five years ago, 76 percent said 1 to 10, compared to only 63 percent in 2005 (see chart on page 42). Christian Wilcox, manager, The Bug Man, Benton, Ark., says his company’s callback rate has declined dramatically since the late ’90s, a fact he contributes to non-repellent termiticides. "New technology has greatly impacted our callback rate," he says. "You still have to do the job right. It’s not magic, but callbacks are no longer an issue for us."

But is a dramatic reduction in callback rates from one season to the next a reflection of an equally dramatic decline in termite populations? "I think we’re giving ourselves way too much credit," says Doug Ashbridge, president, Southern Mill Creek Products, Cleveland, Ohio. "I remember when I worked for Velsciol and PCOs would have a bad termite year and they would say, ‘Oh my God, chlordane has done it. It has wiped out all the termites.’ They said the same thing when Dow came out with Sentricon. It was going to kill all the termites, but that’s not going to happen. In my opinion, that’s one thing about this industry; no matter what we come out with, the insects are going to survive."

While acknowledging a number of variables may be at work when assessing last year’s poor termite season, Donnie Blake thinks technology is having an impact on termite populations. His company treats a number of large apartment complexes in the Louisville area and he recalls receiving 50 to 60 calls a season from some communities when termites would begin swarming in the spring. "Now, with new termite control products we get a handful, if any, calls, so there’s something going on in these accounts," he says. "You used to drive down the road and see swarmers flying across the road. We’re not seeing that anymore."

Fred Strickland, vice president of service and technical, Terminix International, agrees. "There’s been a lot of conversation about baits reducing termite populations," he says. "All baits produce some colony destruction, so they could be reducing termite populations. It’s something to think about."

Others remain dubious. "It’s hard for me to believe we’ve had such an impact with baits, non-repellents and other new technology that we’ve eliminated large numbers of termite colonies," says Steve Scherzinger, president of Scherzinger Pest Control, Cincinnati, Ohio.

Termite researcher Brian Forschler says that while control methods are better than in years past, the industry is in no danger of ridding structures of termites forever.

"Obviously the treatments that are being employed have the potential to kill termites. But I’m not certain we’re getting anywhere near wiping out the termites," he said. "With toxicants that are more likely to kill than just repel, we are making impacts near and around structures that we weren’t in the past."

Forschler added that today’s termite control includes not only better products but better methods, and these factors contribute to a reduction in termite calls from customers. "It’s possible that with better training, better education, better tools, better equipment, we’re just doing a better job," he said.

Theory #2
Better Trained Technicians

What about the quality of technicians providing modern-day termite control services? Could they be performing at such a high level that they’re impacting termite populations? While acknowledging that termite technicians are more highly trained than at any time in the industry’s history, most longtime observers contacted by PCT magazine said it’s not likely a significant factor in the recent decline in swarming activity.

Roland Rhodes, president, Rhodes Chemical Co., Kansas City, Kan., speaks for many in the industry when he says, "The educational level of today’s technician has increased considerably, but I would still lean towards weather rather than the quality of technicians as the primary reason for the decline in termite activity." The 50-year industry veteran acknowledges that the overall quality of the modern-day technician is better than the 1950s and 60s, but that’s due in part to the nature of the products he/she is using. "I think the bar has been raised as far as technicians in recent years," he says. "Baiting requires a more educated technician, someone with greater decision-making skills, rather than someone with a strong back who is required to pull 200 feet of hose. It is now common to see women installing, monitoring and baiting termite stations."

Rick Cooper, vice president, Cooper Pest Solutions, Lawrenceville, N.J. — which recently re-entered the termite market after exiting the field in the 1990s when callback rates went through the roof — agrees. "We have a higher level of technician in many respects and excellent products, but I don’t know if I would attribute those factors to a decline in termite activity," he says.

Forschler says he thinks that technicians today are in fact performing better than in years past. "I’m convinced that the quality of the work that’s being done is better," he said, "not just because of the training but because of the tools that are available."

Theory #3
Better Regulatory Oversight

PCT contacted several regulators in termite "hot spots" to get their perspective on what has been happening with swarms in recent years. Their consensus is that although some PCOs have reported fewer termite swarms, these complaints have not been widespread enough to label this trend as "across the board."

In Georgia, Jim Harron, director of the Georgia Department of Agriculture’s Structural Pest Control Division, says the number of requests his department has received for inspections has decreased. "In the past, swarm season was our busiest time too. The number of requests for our services that we’ve received in the last three to four years has reduced dramatically."

Regulators contacted by PCT, including Steve Dwinell, assistant division director of the Florida Department of Agriculture & Consumer Services Agriculture and Environmental Services, agreed that termite callbacks have been down in recent years.

"I think this is consistent with having products that are more effective and maybe a higher level of training," Dwinell said. "In Florida, the building code changes might have something to do with it, too."

But are stepped up enforcement efforts a factor in reduced termite swarms? Regulators contacted by PCT magazine said termite populations are too vast and complex for their work to significantly impact swarms on a large scale. "As a regulator I would like to think we are doing a better job and thus we are seeing less swarms, but I don’t know if there is any real data to support that claim," said Carl Falco, director of the North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services’ Structural Pest Control Division.

Adds Jim Wright, South Carolina’s lead pest control regulatory official, "If you use that new technology and you treat that house and take care of the termites, the niche is still there. If you look at it on a macro scale the niche is still there. I think it’s a stretch to say we are having an impact on large-scale termite populations."

What is possible is that enhanced regulatory efforts playing a role in PCOs doing better quality termite work, which may be a factor — along with others — as to why termite swarms might be down in some areas. "I think the industry is doing a better job treating because of the increased enforcement…but I think that is only a component of why the industry has improved its professionalism," Harron said. "I don’t think we are the same industry we were 50, 25 or even 15 years ago. As we’ve gotten better technology and chemicals, greater professionalism has gone hand in hand with it. I think regulatory is a component of that."

Theory #3
Cyclical Nature of Insects

In an interview with PCT, longtime consultant Dr. Austin Frishman warned the industry about making rash judgments about any group of insects commonly encountered by PCOs, whether it be cockroaches, fleas, bed bugs or, in this case, termites. "You can’t look at just one year or two years of insect activity," Frishman says. "You must look at five to 10 years before you can say there’s a trend."

George Fidler, division manager, J.C. Ehrlich Co., Reading, Pa., agrees. "For us, 2005 was a down termite year, but the two previous years were very good termite years. In 2004, we experienced double digit growth in our termite business." He chalks up the recent downturn to the cyclical nature of insect populations. "It happens with every insect. You have a high cycle and a low cycle. It’s the nature of the business."

"The rule in biology is that all biological processes are cyclic. Like the lemmings everybody hears about — they all rush to the sea every seventh year. For every down year there’s an up year and the average is what people are used to," said Roger Gold, professor and Endowed Chair at the Center for Urban & Structural Entomology, Texas A&M University. "The termite market will come back. We have done nothing to dent the termite populations."

Theory #4
Changes in the Housing Market

Yet another theory for the perceived decline in termite activity in various parts of the country concerns trends in home construction.

As suburban sprawl continues to consume vast swaths of agricultural land, more and more Americans are moving into homes constructed on farmland where pesticides have been applied for decades. Could these pesticide applications be suppressing termite populations? Roland Rhodes, a highly regarded distributor, scoffs at such an idea. "Termites require an environment with woods and trees, not open fields like you find in Kansas," he says. "There are towns in Kansas that don’t even have termites, so I don’t think that’s a valid argument."

In more populated areas, other housing issues are having a detrimental impact on the termite market. For instance, in Long Island, N.Y. — one of the most important termite markets on the East Coast — new housing is at premium since land is so scarce. In the "old days, it was not unusual for a PCO to get 300 phone calls in one day (during swarm season)," Frishman said. Today, with an ever-growing number of companies offering termite services and little new construction, business isn’t as robust as it was in the 1950s and 60s, "but I wouldn’t worry that we’re going to run out of termites any time soon."

While a solid swarm season can contribute to the success of a company’s termite business, a more accurate predictor of success is new housing starts, according to The Bug Man’s Christian Wilcox. "If our new construction slows down that hurts us more than a poor swarm season," he said. "Slow swarm seasons have caused us to adjust and focus on new construction markets more."

Theory #5
Blame it on the Weather

While there’s no shortage of theories for the up-and-down nature of the termite market in recent years, the general consensus among PCOs and researchers is that weather is playing the most significant role.

"It’s weather patterns, without any question. We have areas that are flooded and we have areas that are dry. There’s only so much water on the earth and it gets distributed differently from time to time," Texas A&M’s Gold said. "Due to the hurricanes, there have been shifts in the weather, and El Niño and La Niña both affect the weather of the whole world," he added.

NPMA President Steve Scherzinger agrees. "I feel it is all weather-related," he says. Scherzinger’s company performs thousands of termite jobs annually in southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. In fact, termite work accounts for 40 to 45 percent of Scherzinger’s annual revenue, and 2005 was a tough year. "We treaded water," he says. "Our pest control service was way up in 2005, but our termite work was way down." Scherzinger says the last time his family-owned business experienced such a poor termite season was 1990. "You get good years and bad years," he says philosophically. "If you get one bad year you don’t throw up a white flag." You deal with it and move on, a sentiment shared by former NPMA President Donnie Blake. "The industry is pretty resilient," he says. "If market conditions change, successful companies adapt."

Scherzinger said last year’s termite season — at least in his market area — suffered from weather conditions that weren’t particularly conducive to termite swarming. "We had the proper amount of moisture, but the warm weather never was sustainable. It was a cold spring." Interestingly, when Scherzinger’s service technicians inspected structures for wood-destroying insects there was no shortage of swarmers in termite tubes, just termites. "When we found termite tubes we found swarmers," he says. "They just never came out."

Dr. Eric Smith, director of technical services, Dodson Bros. Exterminating Co., Lynchburg, Va., has a simple explanation for this phenomenon. "The colony needs certain environmental conditions to exist to release the swarmers," he observes. If it’s too cold or the humidity levels are too low — as it was in many parts of the country last year — mating flights are suppressed. "A colony may make several attempts at releasing its swarmers, but if they’re unsuccessful, they’ll simply recycle the protein and wait until the next year. If they keep them (swarmers), they have to feed them and it’s a drain on the colony’s resources."

Veteran PCO George Mountain agrees. "I think it’s the way the spring came in last year that caused the problem. We got some early calls and saw some swarmers outside, but then the calls stopped when it turned cold. When conditions are unfavorable in the spring the colony cannibalizes the swarmers and they just wait until next year. That’s why there wasn’t a swarm season to speak of in 2005."

Further west, Benton, Ark.’s Wilcox said a possible cause of the lack of swarming activity was "the real hard freeze we had in 2001. It may take three to five years for termites to rebound" from such an event, he says, so optimism is running high heading into 2006. "Our feeling is if it’s down one year, it’s going to go back up eventually. Mother Nature is going to rebound."

Does It Really Matter? While most industry observers attribute the series of poor termite swarms to uncooperative weather during the critical spring season, most remain philosophical about their predicament, understanding they have control over certain things in business but there’s little they can do about the weather. "Last year wasn’t the first poor swarm season we’ve had," says Mountain, "and it won’t be the last." It is how one responds to such inevitable business challenges that separate the growing companies from those that are static or losing market share.

And no matter how well a pest management firm handles its termite market challenges, it’s possible the company may still lose market share, simply due to the number of PCOs now involved in termite control. "If we look at the number of people who now have a termite license, compared to general pest control, there’s a lot of money in termites," Gold said. "PCOs are generally getting a smaller percentage of the calls if, for example, 10 percent more companies have been added to the rosters."

That’s why it’s essential PCOs aggressively market their termite services. "If you rely just on swarms to make the phone ring, you’ve got a problem," says Eric Smith of Dodson Bros. Exterminating. "But if you’re out there prospecting, knocking on doors and conducting inspections, you’re going to be OK because you’re creating the business." Donnie Blake — who has seen a lot of termite seasons come and go — agrees. "Those companies that are counting on a big swarm season to create cash flow for the year are going to be in trouble. They’re not diversified enough to sustain a poor swarm season."

In fact, he says, last year’s anemic swarm season could be a blessing in disguise. Blake contends that massive termite swarms in March and April, while enhancing a PCO’s bottom line, aren’t necessarily beneficial for the industry. It makes salespeople "fat and happy," he says, which can hurt a business over time, prompting your staff to coast. "If you’re aggressive in your marketing and sales activities, and not sitting at your desk waiting for the phone to ring, you’re going to get the business, not necessarily in March and April but you’re still going to get the business. That’s why I’d be happier if the season was more consistent throughout the year."

To facilitate that process, Okolona Pest Control has beefed up its WDI inspection sales efforts and launched a termite damage repair business, which resulted in an 11 percent overall revenue increase despite a poor termite season in 2005. "I’m not counting on our termite work to make the year outstanding anymore," he says. "I’m doing other things to diversify the business, and if we have a good termite year, all the better. If I have the same swarm season I did in 2005, I’m good, and if we have a good swarm season I’ll be pleasantly surprised."

Most agree that to base the success or failure of today’s termite season solely on the annual swarm is foolhardy, yet that’s what the industry has been doing for years. Many pest management professionals are changing this way of thinking, but there’s still no simple answer to the question, "Where have all the termites gone?"

"Yes, swarming is down but business is up. Everybody wants simple answers to complex things," Forschler said. "Usually the answer is that there are too many variables that you can’t control or don’t have information on that could be factors to really nail it down into one or two categories."

Regardless of what happens this spring, overall PCOs are enthusiastic about the future of the termite market. In fact, an overwhelming 69 percent of pest management professionals surveyed by PCT said they’re optimistic about the termite market going forward, with only 11 percent pessimistic about the market. "I think we still have a strong market out there and we’ll see it this year," says Steve Scherzinger.

Scherzinger’s optimism is echoed by Dr. Roger Gold. "The average cycle time in biology is seven years. It could be that we’re in seven years of famine, which makes it biblical," he said. "Be patient, the grand plan is that the termites will survive."

The authors are Internet editor, editor and publisher, respectively, of PCT magazine.

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Does Reierson think factors such as newer products, better trained technicians, etc., may be impacting swarms in other parts of the country? “It’s a distinct possibility,” he said. “And if that is the case I would attribute it to a totally different biology and foraging patterns of the species found in those regions.”